After the increased number of cases in the Covid-19 outbreak and the occupancy in intensive care units, the 1-week period was left behind in the full closure period that started on the evening of April 29.
Experts, who we asked about the effects of the full closure and the effects of the measures taken in Turkey, especially in Istanbul, on the case and death rates, stated that the picture has improved, but the sufficient effect has not been seen yet.
According to the report of Mert Inan from Milliyet newspaper, Istanbul Family Physicians Association Vice President Dr. Mustafa Tamur made the following evaluations:
“However, it is difficult to say that this improvement is permanent. While the number of cases is decreasing, there is no decrease in the number of patients yet. Our number of seriously ill patients and contacts is around 500 thousand across the country. For now, Bağcılar, Gaziosmanpaşa, Bahçelievler, Kağıthane, Bayrampaşa are still the most risky districts. Silivri, Adalar, Çatalca, Şile, Beşiktaş, Şişli are better settlements. For example, while the red risk rate in Beşiktaş decreased by 29 percent, the decrease in Bağcılar was only 2 percent and at the level of 3 percent in Gaziosmanpaşa. Compared to a week ago, the red color scale in Kağıthane has improved by 9 percent. While the reduction in Kadıköy was 15 percent, the red risk rate in Adalar was 58 percent, 43 percent in Şile, and 36 percent in Çatalca. We estimated that the number of deaths per day for this period would reach 500, fortunately we did not see this number. Death numbers will begin to decline with the new week ”.
Public Health Specialist Assoc. Dr. Cavit Işık Yavuz said, “There is a detail in the data that draws our attention. Between 14-20 April, the daily average of cases is in the band of 60 thousand, one week later, that is, in the week of April 21-27, this rate drops to 46 thousand. The average number of cases between April 28 and May 4 is 31 thousand. Such a rapid fall is interesting. Although the number of cases decreases, we can see the decrease in the number of deaths after May 15. Our friends in the intensive care units state that the density of patients continues. It takes 2 weeks for this table to reverse. “On May 17, we will see a decrease in cases, deaths and intensive care units, but vaccination is indispensable for getting out of the pandemic,” he said.
38 PERCENT DECREASE IN ISTANBUL
Computer and Software Specialist Zeki Berk pointed out that despite the decrease, 90 percent of the country is at a very high risk level and said, “While the decrease in some provinces is 50 percent, the rate in Istanbul stands out as 38 percent. There are similar rates for Izmir and Ankara. Despite the decline, 90 percent of the country is at a very high risk level. “Death rates are still horizontal,” he said.
Prof. Dr. Fatih Tank from Ankara University Faculty of Applied Sciences said, “There is an unprecedented decrease in all provinces in any country in the world. There are numerical errors in the data of the Ministry of Health. The provinces with the highest decline were given wrongly. This situation makes you uneasy. ” said.
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