Tuğba Öztürk / ntv.com.tr
Since the beginning of the gradual normalization process in Turkey on March 2 ‘turquoise paintingThe situation is getting worse with each passing day.
The number of cases, which was 9 thousand 891 on March 1, when the normalization steps were announced, rose to 18 thousand 912 yesterday. Considering the number of cases in Turkey’s 15-day report drew attention to the normalization of close to two-fold increase.
How long can the frightening picture take in the increase of cases? Could there be a new wave? Infectious Diseases Specialist Prof. Dr. Kemalettin Aydin, ntv.com.transwered the questions of.
INCREASE OF CASE IS NOT AVOIDED IN NORMALIZATION
Kemalettin AydinHe stated that the increase in the number of cases with controlled normalization is a normal situation and this increase is also expected.
Aydın said, “Out of the provinces identified in red on the risk map, there was a relief in approximately 88 percent of the population with normalization steps. While this relief was more in the blue provinces, it was observed to be slightly less in the orange provinces. Naturally, with this new period, the circulation of the corona virus, which is in every stage of our life, has also increased. ”
” WE EXPAND THE LIFE SPACE OF THE VIRUS ”
In Turkey, Aydin, indicating the beginning of the outbreak by the continued circulation of the virus since; As a society, the more we cluster in certain areas and violate the rules, the more we expand the living space of the virus.
Noting that the corona virus is more than detected in the society, Aydın explained this situation as follows:
” In the normalization in last July, 800-900 cases were detected daily. However, on these dates, Health Minister Fahrettin Koca made a statement that they were doing a random PCR study. This study was conducted with 130 thousand people and corona viruses were detected in 2.6 out of thousand people who had no symptoms or symptoms in the society. So if by chance you do find PCR positivity in 2.6 thousand people working in Turkey wraps positive day with figures of 215 thousand people in the population means that day. Here we understand that there is a contagion as ‘deep bottom wave’. The virus is more than we see ”
” WE SEE 22 THOUSANDS IN THE CASE ”
Stating that he predicts that the increase in the number of cases that has attracted attention recently, Aydın said, “I predict that the cases may increase up to 20-22 thousand bands in the coming days. It would be an abnormal situation if there was no increase in cases during this period. ”
” 80 PERCENT SHOULD BE IMMUNITY ”
Aydin said that Turkey still encounter the virus in a significant portion of the community, in a period of increasing cases of normalization steps thrown in the herd immunity of the population, but nearly 80 percent said that would not happen when it occurs.
The number of cases continues to gain momentum day by day. Although there has not been an increase in the hospital occupancy rate in this process, even the increase in the number of cases is enough to worry.
“NOT YET AFFECTED BY TSUNAMI”
According to Aydın, although the increase in cases in the controlled normalization period scares us numerically, it has not yet ‘tsunami‘did not take effect.
Stating that the epidemic burden is higher than today’s level in cases that increased suddenly due to the tsunami effect in November-December, Aydın said, “ Currently, the hospital and intensive care occupancy rate is at the level of one tenth of November-December. ”
According to Aydin attention it could be further increased propagation speed of the outbreak of severe patients compared to the past and now Turkey is not facing a serious clinical picture.
On the other hand, Aydın said, “If this increase continues like this and the number of cases approaches 30 thousand and this possible course continues for 20-30 days, we will experience fullness in our hospital and intensive care units.”
“HOSPITAL DENSITY IS NOT AS PREVIOUS”
Aydın stated that the density ratio in hospitals is more important than the numbers at this point. Aydın said, “According to the current situation, we will not experience the intensity we experienced in November-December in this new period.”
Expressing that the deep bottom wave experienced today was not like the previous months, Aydın ended his words as follows:
“We see that the number of people who have been infected in more than a year is very important at this point. This situation is called herd immunity and I think there is a herd immunity close to 50 percent in metropolitan cities. This is one of the factors that will keep the rate of spread of the epidemic low. On the other hand, more than 10 million people were vaccinated, which will prevent a significant proportion of seriously ill patients. ”