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Variant and normalization effect: case increase expected in March

Variant and normalization effect: case increase expected in March

Turkey is preparing to lift the Covidien-19 measures gradually. However, experts warn that there may be an increase in cases due to the widespread and normalization of new virus variants. Prof. Dr. Bekir Kocazeybek, “Considering the normalization process in Turkey 15-20 to correct severe cases, a third increase in March is not difficult to predict the movement,” he said. Rose is Professor of Epidemiology Ergor, the new variant is seen that for a month now, been seen a rapid rise in Turkey, he said.

Turkey, together with the normalization process will begin on March 1, it is preparing to release the Covidien-19 measures. However, the new variant of the virus that spread in Turkey and experts pointed out that proliferate along with normalization of human mobility warns it may increase in the number of cases in March.

Speaking to DW Turkish, Cerrahpaşa Faculty of Medicine, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Bekir Kocazeybek, “If we keep increasing the detectability of the new variant and consider the normalization process in Turkey is not difficult to predict 15-20 to move toward a third serious cases increase in March. In the coming days the measures was relaxed. As long as the increased human movement, these variants can also It is natural that we expect an increase in cases as long as it spreads in the society.


Prof. Dr. The variants mentioned by Kocazeybek, the UK, Brazil and South Africa variants and these virus variants have different effects on contagiousness, the course of the disease and the risk of death.

At the end of January, a study named “Information Note on Current SARS-CoV-2 Variants” was published with the contribution of specialists working in the field of microbiology, infectious diseases and public health.

The following information on these variants was noted in the study signed by the Turkish Microbiology Society, the Association of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, the Association of Clinical Microbiology Specialists and the Association of Public Health Specialists:

UK variant:The transmission rate and death rate are higher. It affects all age groups. Loss of efficacy in immune responses acquired after vaccination and wild-type natural infections is unlikely. Due to the increased contagiousness and spreading rate, the increasing number of cases may lead to an increase in the number of seriously ill and deaths.

South African variant:Early studies suggest that it may be resistant to natural infections and post-vaccination antibodies. It is currently dominant in South Africa. Although it is known that its contagiousness has increased, it is still unclear whether it causes a change in the course of the disease.

Brazilian variant:There is a possibility of spreading among people who have previously had an infection. This cause is high risk. This variant may also pose a problem in terms of the effectiveness of vaccines. Although they are thought to have acquired higher contagiousness, their effect on the course of the disease and mortality is not yet clear.


So what’s the prevalence of this variant in Turkey? Health Minister Fahrettin husband, all three types in the earlier press release said that interest in Turkey. However, the ministry positive cases through the mass deploy the health care provider whether any of these three variants and examine it also has not yet updated their data on sightings of these variants in the percentage of positive cases in Turkey.

Prof. Dr. Kenan pony “sample every positive in Turkey is being tested against the possibility that one of these three variants. I do not know if it is done in this prevalence in many countries. Examples sekanslayıp be reached through her. We have many variants, almost so, how many other virus, we know that the real figure is so,” he said.
Lesbos, who is also a member of the Science Board of the Ministry of Health, pointed out that the variants detected in the cases are originated from abroad, but these variants are now becoming widespread in the society.

“The incidence of many variables, but we are slowly rising. (Between positive cases) I’m guessing that start more than 10 percent. However, this is only our own laboratory our data. It would be wrong to generalize it. How is the scale of Turkey, I do not know. For us to know that the actual size of the we need to see all the data that has been reported to the ministry. “

Although the Ministry announced the data, Prof. Dr. Kocazeybek points out that variant origins may be overlooked or undetectable with existing kits. Kocazeybek said, “We can only make variants with sequencing method that provides full genome analysis. We can do this in Cerrahpaşa. However, for example, I am not sure if full genome analysis can be done in education and research hospitals where more patients apply. For this reason, the numerical ratio of the UK, South Africa and other variants. It is not possible for us to know what is “.

the number of new cases in Turkey who think there are variants will not have a big impact. Dokuz Eylul University’s Professor of Epidemiology rose Ergor “This virus is seen in Turkey for about a month. However, a rapid increase was not” point to attract attention.

Prof. Dr. Referring to studies that the UK variant is between 30 and 70 percent more contagious, Ergör said, “We did not see such an increase. Maybe it can be thought that ‘the mutated virus must spread to see this.’ However, as said, this variant is 10 percent of the total cases this week. If it is seen in the following weeks, it should have increased to the 20s and 30s. But we do not see such a thing either. Maybe it increases the number of cases. But I think it is not as scary as mentioned, “Corona virus drug hope: Molnupiravir

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